A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
