Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
